There are several reasons to consider when looking at DAX 30 & Nasdaq 100 Forecasts: Will the Recovery Continue? Now, will the U.S. economy continue its rebound and resume its recent upward trend after a sudden drop in GDP figures? I am not so sure.
This is why, many folks who are looking at and expecting the current short term economic bubble to burst sooner rather than later are wrong, because the downward trend has not reached that point yet. We can see this evidenced by the low unemployment numbers – in spite of the number of people that are out of work. There is some good news in these unemployment numbers, however – the small jobs gains have offset those that were lost during the recent recession.
The combination of a small job growth and average income earners continuing to feel the effects of lower salaries on the dollar have allowed the consumer to remain in good spirits during this period of time and this, for most of us, has been the main reason for the reason for this seemingly odd correlation between the two statistics. The smaller percentage of people that are in employment means the average amount of spending power per consumer (the poor folks) continues to grow.
This just seems to further explain the value of a more in-depth DAX 30 & Nasdaq 100 Forecasts – The accuracy of what is perceived as “core” economic data has led me to believe that the answer to the question, Will the Recovery Continue? is Yes.
When an individual that is concerned about the stock market has a more refined view of the economy, and begins to look for long term economic indicators that will indicate when the stock market may collapse, what will they see when they are looking at this same problem? Well, you can start to see by looking at the statistic known as the Total Adjusted Index (TAI).
A return to economic growth is achieved by following the steps in the Gervais cycle that begin with the new business cycles that start in 1997. After you have followed these steps, you can then move forward into the ITU (Internet Trade Uptrend Indicator) indicator.
After reading the Gervais cycle, a person can then move onto the ITU cycle which begins at the level of 2020 and continues until the end of 2020, so this would be the most accurate indicator of when the Recovery will Continue. These two indicators are in line with the dual indicators that are considered by the United States Federal Reserve and its monetary policy committee to be valid indicators of the probability of future recessions in the near future.
These two factors are not always reliable indicators of when the Recovery will Continue, however, they do provide a solid basis on which to base one’s assumptions. Therefore, while the unemployment numbers have not dropped as low as many are looking for them to, this is not necessarily a bad thing.
The above economic data will remain strong through the winter, but we should be cautious about that as the economic data will start to drop, which is never a good thing, as our economy turns down for the winter. So, while the unemployment rate has not dropped, the increase in manufacturing activity should help the recovery from the recession, but there will still be pockets of weakness in certain industries.
It is important to know that after we get past this winter, we are in a better position to forecast the future of our economic recovery, or else we could be facing the same unfortunate circumstances that we now have. This does not bode well for the future, as the same slow to move economic recovery that we have experienced since the beginning of the recession has now grown even more sluggish.
The bottom line for me is that, If one does their research and is able to determine the economic indicators that make up the Gervais cycle and ITU cycle, then they will understand the correct indicators for predicting when the recovery will continue and when it will end. It is my contention that we will enter into a recession from here on out, but only if we allow it to happen.