US Dollar Outlook Bullish on SGD, PHP, MYR, INR. Trade Wars Heat Up

The US dollar can gain against its major counterparts if a cascade of employment data shows strong job creation in the face of growing US-China war trade tensions. It failed to rise on Monday due to the latest issue coming out of the US elections. The US dollar experienced its worst week against its major counterparts starting in mid-October. Apart from the Fed, it is awaiting local CPI data (due Wednesday) and retail sales on Friday. Despite a further 75 basis point (bps) increase in the Federal Reserve’s targeted frequency band, the US dollar (USD) lost ground against most major currencies, as did a handful of emerging market currencies. One currency that managed to hold his land was the Indonesian Rupiaheven although his central bank joined the revelry of Surprise Easing seen around the world.

Volatility is extremely low compared to the average volatility of the last 10 periods. It is relatively normal compared to the average volatility of the last 10 periods. Central bank’s data-dependent approach could cause increased market volatility given surprises that economists’ expectations are very far removed.

As such, the current account balance is often an important indicator of how a country’s NIP balance will evolve. Rather than focusing on the fiscal deficit in isolation, it is perhaps more important to focus on the current account balance. The current account balance for any country basically reflects the net savings balance (or deficit) of the three main sectors that make up each economy, namely the public sector, the business sector and the domestic sector.

The Yen struggled due to ongoing upside factors in USD trade, such as high hopes for a December Fed rate hike. It is under pressure from the bullish Japanese stocks that were fueled by the commercial data released on Wednesday morning. Despite the last Japanese retail sale and spending improving forecast data, it generally remained in disgrace on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar has been under pressure after a local ofdismal inflation data set. The Singapore dollar made prudent gains against the US dollar as of late.

There are few US data on the calendar on Monday, which means the US dollar is likely to start the week by responding to Federal Reserve excursion bets and developments for the Japanese Yen. “Although trade data has not had much impact, concerns about slowing growth and a lack of government stimulation are capping Chinese stocks higher,” said Naoki Tashiro, president of TS China Research. Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at theDailyFX webinar. Trade all the major LIVEAS global economic data gets populated in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage of key events listed on theDailyFX webinar.

Shares rallied, with the Dow recovering the 25,000 mark, and rising to its highest in three months. Asian shares withdrew and Treasury yields declined after the Wall Street Journal said the US government was drafting rules that would block companies with at least 25 percent Chinese-owned companies from buying US companies involved in industrial technology significant. After 3 reductions in 2019, the central bank seems to think that rates are where a substantial change in prospects must be absent. It is expected to leave unchanged monetary policy settings, so the markets will be left volatile by its driving forward. Central foreign banks (mainly China, Japan, and oil producers) became large buyers of US Treasury securities not because they viewed them as attractive investments, but in order to offset large capital inflows or trade surpluses and prevent the their currencies to appreciate.

Higher rates and tightening liquidity could lead to a strong rebound of the US dollar at some point, if no catalyst emerges to shift the emerging bearish consensus. Meanwhile in India, an unexpected unanimous rate taken by theRBI further raised the Rupeeat expenses of the Nifty 50. After the Reserve Bank of India by surprise unanimously expected rate, the rupiah will look closely at inflation and industrial output yields local day the BSP itself.

Prices are still hovering above the support which is a combination of the rising trendline from March and lows from September to 4.1630. And they broke in the rising channel, which should open lower than the bearish channel as a viable target, but at the moment there can be no other attempt to repeat the Top channel test, in line with the short-term bullish outlook. By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.34. Oil prices withdrew but hovered near recent peaks after OPEC and its allies agreed to deepen the exit cuts by 500,000 barrels a day in the early months of 2020. They made the GDP rally lower after the initial reactionary release post, but bullish trend recovered quickly, allowing the trial price to go down again. Meanwhile in India, a sudden unanimous price hangs from theRBI further raised the Rupeeon Nifty 50’s expenses.